1 week, 4 days ago

Leaving aside the actual scene and talking about the importance of penalty rounds, this question may be unanswerable. 

Specific to different players, the pressure is also difficult to quantify. 

In fact, the difference between penalty kicks and penalty kicks in the game is very different. 

The question is about penalty takers. Most people pay attention to them, but the role of goalkeeper may be more important. 

The following theoretical studies on the order of penalty kicks can be referred to. 
From the perspective of pure theory, the Journal of Sports Sciences published an analysis & lt; 
 on winning the penalty shoot out in soccer & gt; 
. Based on probability theory, computer simulation and mathematical modeling, the most "reasonable" arrangement of the five round penalty shoot out is as follows:


 players on the court will be ranked according to their ability of daily penalty kicks. 


 
 
 ranked fifth, the first kick - 
 
 86.6% 
 
; 
 ranked fifth


 ranked fourth, the second kick - 
 
 81.7% 
 
; 
 ranked fourth


 ranked third, the third kick - 
 
 79.3% 
 
; 
 was the third


 ranked second, the fourth kick - 
 
 72.5% 
 
; 
 was ranked second


 the best penalty shooter, the fifth kick - 
 
 80% 
 
; 
 is the best penalty shooter


 (still not winning or losing) ranked sixth, the sixth kick - 
 
 64.3%



 if there are any, they will be ranked 7, 8, 9 in turn Corresponding to the respective rounds. 




McGarry, T. and Franks, I. M. (2000) On winning the penalty shoot-out in soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences, 18, 401-409.


This penalty is based on the European Cup, the world cup, the Americas Cup According to the data accumulated in intercontinental games (compared with Club matches, penalty kicks are more common for national teams in cup matches), 
 combined with players' pressure, free throw technique and fatigue degree 
, the conclusion is drawn. 

The percentage data that follows is the success rate of free throws. 



06  Trezeguet made his third appearance in the penalty kick decisive match of the world cup in 1995. He cheated Buffon and hit the crossbar instead of Buffon. This conclusion clearly opposes the view that the best player in the penalty kick kicks first. 
 - because he thinks that the pressure on the team and the players is not so great, and the fault tolerance rate is the same It's higher than the next few. 



 but with greater pressure (more afraid of the consequences caused by the penalty, more need to bear the responsibility of setting the tone of a penalty...) The better the free throw players are, the more they should be in the back. 



 as for the PK who still can't win or lose after five rounds and needs to rely on sudden death to make one goal, then use the best player among the remaining players to make a penalty in turn. 


But after all, this is a conclusion of pure theory, and it needs to be adjusted on the spot in combination with the actual situation of the court, such as players' fatigue, free throw willingness, and players' ability to resist pressure. 


 
 kicking nerve knife but the penalty kick is absolutely the first gear Balotelli 
 
 
 return to the title "penalty fight is the first penalty important, or the fifth penalty is more important? This theory also states that:

 
 the importance of the first penalty kick is not so high to some extent, and there is a chance to make up for it later. Including the data, the success rate of the first penalty is the highest among all penalty kicks

But from the second goal to the fifth goal, their percentage of hit rate is not much difference, and in fact this percentage is not much reference value. 
 therefore, in terms of importance, the second to fifth are both important, and there is no special difference between them. 



 from the perspective of player psychology, pure theoretical analysis is not of great significance 
 (the psychological activities of kickers on the spot may not be as "many plays" as the off-site audience and commentators think). 
 from the final results, all kinds of psychological analysis can make sense. 
 there is no value in summing up mistakes after the event


 similarly, there is no argument that the more penalty kicks are, the greater the pressure will be (this conclusion is against this view). It's just that as the result becomes clearer and closer, the probability of winning or losing tends to one side (if one side leads more). 




, and as many as 23.47% of the first four rounds came out. 


 
 
 therefore, combined with the actual situation (still in theory) -

 
 if the penalty shooter (usually the coach) wants to temporarily change the penalty kick plan before the match, for example, he thinks that both sides may be under great pressure and won or lost after a few rounds, then he may 
 advance the position of the player with the best penalty kick technique, so as to avoid the situation that the penalty kick is arranged in the fifth round and the result is not played at all

In theory, the player who ranks fifth in penalty kick ability should be the first to stand on the penalty spot. However, it can be combined with the situation of the game, so that players with goals will be punished first. Usually, the players who get goals will be more calm and less pressure (after all, they have scored in this game). Even if they don't make a penalty, it is not necessarily a complete disaster for the team. 
Therefore, the most reasonable way for players who have scored goals on the day (especially those who have scored more than one goal) is to arrange them in the top three places and take the first free throw at the scene



 
 
 
 even though some players may not be the most dazzling from the pure free throw data, as long as they are present, they will be arranged in the penalty shoot out battle 
. 
For example, Messi, Ronaldo, Becks, Lampard, Gerrard Even if they are not in good condition (take Portugal for example, the penalty data of mutinio is actually better than that of Ronaldo, but when it comes to the critical moment, Ronaldo's penalty priority must be better than that of mutinio)

Although it seems that the first free throw was mentioned earlier, usually the coach still arranges the player with the most "stable" free throw to ensure the hit 
. This stability may be due to a good penalty kick technique or a stable mentality. 
Take the example of the 1998 World Cup, in three penalty shootouts, the first penalty was the team's top penalty shooter (the only exception was Argentina 6-5 England, also because the number one penalty shooter Bati was replaced by Crespo before)



 
 
 
 based on the existing data, the hit rate of this penalty kick is usually very low in the face of a 
 penalty throw, at least most of which is lower than the normal hit rate of the penalty shooter. On the contrary, 
 when the penalty is scored, the penalty hit rate is generally extremely high 
, and the players are full of confidence and often play at a high level


 it is also normal and reasonable for a player to make a penalty kick in the club and the national team. Because the pressure will be completely different, so it is also why so many "well-known penalty shooters" often fail in competitions and are unknown or do not give penalty kicks in the club, on the contrary, they are stable (there is also survivor bias)


<img class="content-image" src=" https://pic2.zhimg.com/v2-39bdc64e5ed1a3647568098db11adce5_ b. There is a saying to describe football: "the most rational sport is the most perceptual one.". 」

The main idea is that a lot of behavioral logic on the court can be analyzed in the most rational way (for example, the most reasonable order of penalty kicks and the players who should be sent), but the technical analysis is dead, and the real players and the changes on the court are alive - which makes many of the most rational plans fail to catch up with the plans - otherwise, the scores of each game will be compared with those of various spinach companies and sports companies The result of data modeling is the same. 

 
 players' penalty kick and goalkeeper's penalty kick technique have been changing. For example, according to the statistics of the 1990s, players tend to observe the movement of the goalkeeper's position before touching the ball, and then kick in another direction; after 1998, more and more players began to play directly according to the set line. 

The goalkeeper has also made a save action in advance of judgment, and in the penalty shooter touch the ball at the moment of play again. 

All these show that penalty kicks are not unchangeable. 

A little more


 most people pay attention to the penalty shooter when taking a penalty kick. In fact, the role of the goalkeeper may be more important; 
 in the penalty kick, the goalkeeper's role may be more important


 the pressure on the penalty shooter is much greater than that on the goalkeeper


 usually, the penalty shooters who are under great pressure and have been thoroughly studied will face the penalty shooters. 



 
 
 take Lampard as an example. 

As one of the penalty takers of Chelsea (one of them) and a must-have player in England's penalty shootout, Lampard is not necessarily a top-notch penalty shooter - there are a few key misses - but he is still a good penalty taker. 

So what's the goalkeeper's rate of success when he takes a penalty? 48.5%。 In other words, 
 the goalkeeper has almost half the chance to judge Lampard's penalty direction (and make a save). 
 in terms of van der Sar, Rena, given and others, Lampard's success rate of being judged as the direction further increased to 62.5%. 

As mentioned above, Lampard's penalty kick is not bad. Even if it seems that the goalkeeper can easily guess his direction, in fact, even if he guesses correctly, the goalkeeper has only a 27.3% chance to throw the ball out - even if it is in the right direction, lampa

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